Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza, speaking to Europe Time, suggests that Kazakhstan is embroiled in a power struggle. The upheaval in Kazakhstan, according to Matthew Bryza, is a challenge for Kazakhstan, not the West.
"President Tokaev is trying to claim that there are some external forces, some terrorists. I think that this is absolute baloney. There is zero evidence of that. And the fact that Tokaev accuses the former head of security services, Karim Masimov, is absurd.
This shows me that President Tokaev is desperate. He realizes he made a huge mistake by removing Nazarbaev from his constitutionally guaranteed position. So, he violated the Constitution. When he fired Masimov, he lost all support from the security services. "It is simple to answer that Tokaev is trying to replace the leadership that appointed him as president, and it would have a regional aspect if unrest continues and Tokaev keeps trying to destroy the Nazarbayev regime," Matthew Bryza said.
In terms of Russia's role, Bryza believes President Putin did not want to get involved.
"There are a few ways the US and Russia share a common interest in central Asia and the South Caucasus. One is that when it comes to Kazakhstan, both Moscow and Washington want stability; they do not want protest, which spins out of control. It is also important that US investment in the energy sector in Kazakhstan continues.
When there was a chance that Tokarev could be overthrown by protests in the streets, I think Putin decided: We have no choice, we have to send troops, and the worst situation for Putin would be if the protest continues and Russian troops get involved in fighting, then Russia will be the enemy of Kazakhstan, like in Ukraine. "As a result, Putin does not want Russian soldiers to be involved," Matthew Bryza said.
According to him, this is a challenge for Kazakhstan and not for the West. There is not much at stake for the West. The US pulled out of Afghanistan in a terrible way. The US does not need oil or gas in Kazakhstan.
Bryza said that Kazakhstan is under Russia's influence.
The United States is the largest producer of natural gas in the world, compared to Russia and Saudi Arabia. However, Chevron has made a big investment, and, of course, the United States wants this company to do well, Matthew Bryza said.
Is he an Authoritarian leader? Bryza also discusses this issue.
"He has become one. But I would not have guessed that he would take this path. I had the honor of meeting him many times when he was a foreign minister or deputy minister, and he was always a gentle and highly educated man. I am surprised he became the de facto autochtonarian leader.
If a leader of any country issues an order to kill protesters, you have become an authoritarian leader, and I am shocked and disappointed. He has chosen Moscow. I believe his interactions with Putin will be positive. As with the West, he risks being seen as a Central Asian authoritarian leader who used to be on the right path. But now he has chosen to confront his own people. He risks being the target of sanctions.
Anger in Kazakhstan's society
"I have spent so many years in Kazakhstan that I visited Zhanaozen as part of my business life. There has been a lot of anger in Kazakhstan's society for decades. Especially in the western area of Kazakhstan, Zhanaozen, because that is where the normal wealth is generated and the wealth is taken out of the region, the people who live there do not live a great life. They do not have a lot of money, and they suffer from a very serious health problem because of the bad treatment of the environment caused by oil production. The increase in the crisis of LPG was like the spark that lit that little fire in Zhanaozen and brought those protests to life.
It is surprising how quickly the protests spread to other cities in Actobe, Actau, which is near Zhanaozen, Taraz, and then really surprising to Almati.
"Almati is a very prosperous city, and it is really unusual that there would be protests there," Matthew Bryza said.
